Government revenue stability

The NY Times writes about state budget woes:

Hardest hit on the income tax collection front was New York, where revenues were off 48.9 percent compared with the last fiscal year. Corporate income taxes plummeted most in Oregon, down 44 percent, while sales taxes fell most in Washington, down 14.1 percent.

The Gates Commission says (p. 25) that short-run tax elasticities are as follows:

• Sales and use taxes: 1.4 (i.e., a 1% increase--or decrease---in GDP produces a 1.4% increase---or decrease---in sales taxes revenue)
  
• B&O tax: 1.4
• Property tax: 0.2
• Public utilities tax: -0.2
• All taxes: 1.2
• Income taxes: The appendix estimates an elasticity of 2.0 for flat personal income taxes, and the main report says that "the sales tax, although volatile, is less volatile than a graduated personal income tax. There is no evidence that a flat rate personal income tax in Washington would be less volatile than the sales tax. The B&O tax is not as volatile as a corporate income tax."