Monday, April 27, 2009

Tragedy of the swine flu

The swine flu is, like the case of students, teachers, or workers with the common cold, a classic case of the Tragedy of the Commons: each individual has a strong incentive to carry on with their plans---whether it's travel or coming in to school or work---and the result is bad for the group as a whole because it results in more people getting sick. There's even a name for it: presenteeism.

It's easy to tell people to stay home if they're sick, but that's not going to change the incentives that make this a Tragedy of the Commons situation. Hence the logic behind mandatory quarantines at airports. Reorganizing incentives at school and work so that sickies stay home is more complicated, but definitely worth the effort...

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