Five possible outcomes of Waxman-Markey

Pick your favorite outcome for the climate bill:

1. There will be a backlash once middle-class voters find out that energy prices are going up and there's no tax relief to show for it.
2. There may or may not be a backlash but who cares because middle-class voters aren't important, it's really industry that has political power.
3. There will not be a backlash because middle-class voters care enough about climate change to bite the bullet.
4. There will not be a backlash because the bill will have enough loopholes to keep permit prices down, i.e., the policy will be ineffectual.
5. The bill will fail.

Time will tell... but I think it will be either #4 or #5. I hope it's not #1 or #2, and #3 seems totally unrealistic to me.